Gold - fell again

10.10am
Been awhile since I did an update of my activities,.. was reading and trying to stick with a strategy,.. it keeps changing. Pam showed me an article that says , I will form a habit by repeatedly doing something all over again for 30 days.. I guess once I find a method that will profit me consistently,.. I will repeat that process for 30 days and see if it will form a habit and get my discipline up to stick with it.

Despite what many top analyes have indicated,..that gold will reach 2000/ 5000 by end of next year and beyond,.. I am sticking to a down gold for the short time.

Looking at the daily chart, gold should touch 1540 today, which is the support for 200 ema.
On the monthly chart, support are at these level:
1455 : 38.2 Fib level
1446 &
1315.

I should look into buying gold when it moved up from the last support to 1337 - 1340 level. I cannot imagine price to fall further down that level - but then again, anything can happen. For now, I should only look to short gold when opportunities arises - not buy/sell whenever the wind blows. Just focusing on one diection for now - DOWN.

Cash 147/ 147

Singapore Index - at risk of major downturn..

STI - weekly.

I do not like what I see, it's basically showing that we are at a major support level and if that level is broken, it's likely that we move down to  2364 level, which is resting at 50% fibonacci level.

The weekly prices from a drome shape,..and it also looks like double shoulder, a head and a possible formation of the 2nd right shoulder.

What I need to take note of and to remind myself is : TRY TO SELL AT ANY BULL RUN,.. DO NOT BUY AND BE LEFT HOLDING THE BABY.

Yr 2012, based on this chart,  looks more bearish than bullish. Infact, the bear has stepped in early this year - we just failed to notice.  I have to refrain from throwing in more money into the stock market - it is not the right time to be aggressively speculative.

 

Gut feel for Gold - UP : Today only

10.50am
TP triggered for the 2 long Gold. Morning cash position was 163./ net 163.

Looking at the 4 hr chart, I am placing my bet on Gold to move up today. Just for today. I have placed an order for another 2 lots long gold at 1613.25. Have yet to place the stoploss yet. But today's full concentration will be to buy gold when it moved down.
Will look into silver too.

Cash 163/ net 164. Long 2 gold

Looking at Gold again after a short break..

11.10am. I was tempted to buy gold before the vacation as it is showing a double bottom.. it was hoovering around 158x and I totally believe it will move up temporary before going downhill again.  But then again, I didnt want to be thinking about my trade during that wonderful break, so placed no trade.  It did move up to 162x,.whil the heart ache a little, there was no regret. It's just the right thing to do.

Now that I am back and looking at the 15 mins chart,  EMA 34 crossed down from EMA200 a moment ago. This to me is bearish, and since I am bearish on gold at the moment, decided to short 2 gold .
1 lot at 1612.19 and the other lot at 1609. Tight SL is placed,.. since BB is tighting and I didnt want to be caught with my pants down when it surge up. 
Will see how it perform, and since I will be away whole afternoon,.. will leave the trade to play itself out - hopefully, in my favour.

Cash 150/ net 150. Short gold, 2 lot.

Taking a 4 days break from Trading

Going off for a short break in Malaysia with family.... would hv loved to stick around and see how gold and silver perform for the week,..but needed family time together.

Will be back soon..

Friday's analysis

9.15am..
Guess it a start of the new me again - having blew (again ?!?!?!) my account down to mere 100+ from previous high of 400+...

Restart my 'engine' with this analysis and see how it goes.

Daily
USD/CAD : Short trade ONLY
Price above EMA34, but CCI, Stochastic pointing downwards. Once EMA34 is broken..to go short at higher volume. Now wait and see.

GBP/USD - Long ONLY
Doji sighted 3 days ago, yesterday was green. Resistent at 1.55395... , strong resistent at 1.57598. Go small long once first resistant is hit.

4Hr
Gold - Long ONLY
At 4 hour chart, gold seems to be coiling up for an upstring.  Since I have already 2 long lots,..now  showing a loss of $30/- will leave it alone and not cut the losses. To buy one more at appropriate time, since it has broken out the resistant at 4Hr
SL to set at 1553.39

Silver - Long Only
SL at 27.939
4Hr chart, indicators showing positive uptrend..Broken resistant. It should be a small risk trade till US session.

Cash 153, Net 115

Killed while asleep

11.14am...
while I was sound asleep last nite, US Fed's FOMC meeting gave no hint of any further quantitative easing of US monetary policy. Without such news, USD surge sharply higher, which put pressure to the price of gold. Price of gold was moving nicely up during my evening hours but woke up with a slaughtered cash balance.
Cash is now reading as 137, net 137. Lower than 168 when I first started the blog after a painful cash reduction.
Gold is such a difficult animal to tame,..each time I thought I got it right, it turned around to bite me. Given this very limited amount, it is very easy to blow it all over again.  I will go small again and try one more time to see if I can bring up the cash value,..slowly but surely and not get too carried away with my desire to see price of gold moving up.
Long term it is still pretty bearish,.. each time I tried to buy for the rebound,..it does not work... gravity bring it down all the time. What I will probably do now is to wait for the rebound to move to overbought situation and then to sell..this way,..gravity will help me pull it down , with the downtrend.

Will see how I behave.
Cash 137. 0 orders outstanding

Risking 30% of my capital on Gold

10.25pm...
Looking at weekly chart, gold sits on my favourite 34EMA.  Any fall below that level will possibly means a U turn in gold prices..right now,.it's sitting on the fence.
Daily chart in another MT4 Platform shows price resting on 200EMA . It looks like a strong support today. If this support is broken, again.. prices will be expected to fall - and fall.

Given that historically, prices of gold is on it's uptrend, I am betting for it to stay temporary up. It is possible that it will eventually break, but for now, I am trying to capture any profits on it's temporary rebound.
Entered 4 long gold at price 1662.79, SL set at 1648.06, potential loss $80/- or roughly 30% of whatever cash balance I have now left - make or break time. I hv not set TP yet,.. given that prices have fallen so much,.. I would love to push any profit as far as possible.

Am using Support/ Resistent strategy..
Cash 272, Net 281.
Long 4, Gold

Gold - you hate them you love them

12noon...
my 3 outstanding orders last nite , resulted in further damage to my account. Gold has broken the support level and has formed head and shoulder formation,..yet I was stubborn and wanted to long it - that result in my account being down to mere 258$,.. down from $400+ just last week.

I am still very much tempted to buy...but am controlling this urgency. I reckon gold will fall to 1550$ level before moving up.. it's at 1655 now..
Patient needed before my accounts get damaged again..

Be patient..be patient...

I was Right, Yet sorely damaged

10.20pm... was not able to do any entry earlier as system keeps showing error each time I tried to update my blogspot. Must have been reflective of my mood ?!

I was right. I said gold and AJ will fall.  In fact, I was able to nicely bring up my account to a level of 413$ thereabout by shorting both gold and AJ..and cut short it's fall qtr way. I took my profit much too early. I closed all my outstanding and not left any to orders to bring in fatter bacon.
My analysis of the market was wonderfully correct... my entry timing was bad,..and my exit was much much worst.
And given that I am such a contraian player, I reckon that with my exit in the short position, the trade is bounce to move up north..and as you hv guessed it,.. I went long into gold..thinking that it has fallen enough. My love for gold has blinded the fact that on a daily chart, it has formed a head/shoulder formation. It has broken the right shoulder and gravity has started to do it's work , pulling it all the way down today.
At time point of typing now, gold price is now1666.92. Who would hv imagine that gold price would get this low this fast ?
My current account fell from Friday 400 to 311 today,.. no thanks to the plunge in gold price.  I had set a buy limit at 1667.87 : 3 lots earlier this morning. This is the low of the previous low. System went down and by the time I reboot , the order was triggered. 3 lots. I have decided not to set stop loss for it as I do not wished to be taken off by false breakdown. Today 's price has plunged way above daily average, and I was hoping that the only other option for gold is no up.  No TP, no SL set. I am probably comfortable to buy gold at this price and if a margin call is triggered becoz it fell thru' the floor, so be it. I am okay with buying gold at this level and wait for it to move higher.

I will try not to think how much I would hv profitted if I were to hang on to my belief and not take profit off the table so soon - I hope to instill this in my mind.. lesson learnt
Current cash balance 312, net 315, outstanding 3 long gold at 1667.87.

Closed for the week

3.25pm.. closed off all outstanding position. As of now, the pairs I am trading at , has reached it's average range and I am not going to push my luck further since I will not be available in the evening.
All position closed,..will use Support/Resistant for next week to trigger my buy/sell. I will aim to be a sniper instead of the general army with an automatic machine gun. Will only trigger order when the chance of winning is the highest.

It was a good trading week.. which I will hope to repeat it again next week.

Cash 401, net 401... order 0 outstanding.

AJ out..start all over again

10.18am
It sure takes lots of conviction to exit AJ with a small profit - after all the roller coaster ride. Having the belief that AJ longterm trend is down,..actually help buffer all the negative $$ for the last few days. It was a relief. I would hv left it alone but the 4hr chart shows price sitting on the 200sma. Decided to let it move up and then short again at a right time. Today's friday, I dun really like to trade on Friday..so will see how it goes on this AJ pair in the near future.

Gold in the 4hr chart is at oversold situaation,.. decided to move 2 lots long, with very tight SL. Potential loss $10. R/R 1:1.

Current order :
2 long gold
1K short AU
0.5K short GU.. my outlook in USD will strengthen for rest of today.
Cash 349, net 344.

Niagara Fall

10.15pm...
The European Central Bank cuts it rate... and I am not sure why the market behave the way it did. First, there was a rocket shoot up.. it went up AGAINST my order... at one stage AJ was negative $35/- and hitting SL.. and as fast as it surge up , it falls like water in the Niagara Fall - there was no pause for a break..it just fell,..now my pair is -$16/-. To think that I am just trading $2K and experiencing such price swing,..what will happen to those traders that trade a standard lot of $100K ? I think today's price moment must have caused a few heartattacks.

I have decided to look far,. daily chart , 200SMA.. if that immediate trend is up,.. I will only trade along side that. My stop loss should be place far enough as not to be triggered with movement as crazy as today.  And I must trade at a small enough lot that any temporary price swings will not have me crunching on my heart on the floor.  I hv to manage my lot size and not to overleverage - this way.. I should be able to win consistently and be humble in the process of counting cash.

Tomorrow will be another day,..will be anxious to see how dow jone moved. The property measures that our govt took last night has resulted my loss of $1K today.. just like that,.. a decision, a quick loss even before it has a chance to move up,.. it went down. I should stop falling in love with Capitaland.. it jinx my capital...

Price of gold plunge as I type.. goodness me... such drastic fall again... when stock falls,.. commodities fall,. there is only one thing to look out for,.. the bond market.

Cash..355, net 347
open Short AJ 2K

Looks like I am stuck with AJ for a while

9.55am...
Did some quick trade on Gold (short) yesterday with some positive result,..helped me buffer the losses from AJ - though no enough, but any little help.
Negative AJ went as high as $33- before correcting to $-17,..but now been hoovering around $-20. Will just leave this pair alone. One good thing about having it in the system is - it prevented me from betting on other currency as I need to keep my leverage low..will try not to hit $10K on orders with my leverage. This way, less damage for me. And having an order in the system makes me 'complete' - I avoided hastely moving in to any currency that I assume will move in the direction I had in mind.

Anyway,.. went into land stock yesterday, only to have the government put in cooling measures over the evening....so much about my luck on stocks....for nothing,..my paper asset reduced by nearly $800 over night. This government... sigh !

Cash 351/ Net 330,... Short AJ 2K

Each ticks bleed my heart....

...okay..I exaggerated a little...
3.15pm.. by doing nothing but leaving the order as it is,.. my net balance fell below $300/-... The AJ pair is leaking my money bag.. persistently upwards moving, ignoring my short order. To think that just a mere order of $2K can result in a current loss of $33/- means the strength of Aussie vs Yen is pretty strong.
Since I have had SL set,.. I will just leave it alone and let it either hit my SL and see me weep , or quietly move down to where I intended it to be.

Time will tell,..tho' time's not on my side now... with it's price moving nearer and nearer to my stop loss target. SIGH !

Giving up gains and more

11.40pm
Today's focus was on shorting AJ as there was a bearish divergence... did well in the morning shorting this pair,..and profit in the morning was $20+..very unusal as Asian session is zzzz....even when these are asia's pair.

Ceased being humble when I thot I am on track in covering back my gold losses ,..I thot I got the golden touch.. went in to long Eur/Gbp only to have SL triggered quickly... However, since I continue to gain from AJ,.. I threw caution to the wind,.. when in to several other pairs... losses..and to make matter worst,.. late afternoon, the AJ pair turned around and started to show losses..
My morning gains were wiped out,..and capital reduced further - time to begin to be humble and back to reading and strategizing.

Right now, net balance is a mere 330, (case was 346).. open short orders on 2K AJ. Shorted at 79.09.
I have set SL..and am leaving it alone , since the overall daily chart still looks bearish.. will hope to have some nice surprises tmr when I wake up.. as long as there is no bigh false flunctation that kill my SL, I think I pretty much will leave this pair alone till it is ripe for picking... profit... right now, it's showing a loss of $16/-.

No other orders, cash 346/ net 330

Gold back to Square One

10.05am
Price of gold went back to where it was before the surge on last thursday. Tears for those who lost big during the surge, only to see prices back to their original position, with no orders on hand. The orders I placed , in anticipation of the fall would hv been profitable if I held on ; but I had to set a Stop loss as part of my discipline to trade safely.
The main mistake is to keep assuming it will fall (now,..now ,..NOW!) and placing bet against it's rise. One never know how far it will go up before it plunge..and I was hurt as it drag up, giving away many of my accumulated profit. My guts feel has been right,.. but the timing is wrong,..and that matters - wrong timing can be fatal.
Given that the price of gold has gone back to the lower channel.. there is no more incentive for me to short it - far too risky.  I will now look at the AJ pair,..with shorting on mind. I usually do not like to short Aussie dollar due to it's high interest rate, but this pair looks ripe for picking/ shorting I mean..

An order for 2.8K triggered at 79.594. Potential loss for this is 30$,.. 1:1 R/R ratio.. will see how it turn up.. I may abandon order if the chart changes direction..before it hit SL .Will see...

Cash 354, net 351... short AJ, 2.8K

Gut Feel Paid Off

8.30am...
Gold fell yesterday and given the lesson learnt on trading aggressively and lossing money at the end to slippage, I was very conservative. Trade one lot and brought the account to 349$..wouldnt it been nice if I trade larger like the time when I did, when I was a loser ?   I have to learn to win consistently and not get too impatient. I guess the next time I get emotionally charge,..I should walk away , incase I get too impulsive and trade too aggressively, not following my limit loss days.

3 orders were triggered based on the reset buy/sell price made over the weekend.
Orders were
Short USD/CAD,
Short USD/JPY and
Long USD/HKD...all showing small negative at the moment.. and since the wins and losses  are pre-determined, I will leave all these alone - these orders were based on breakout strategy,.. will see how that work out.

Cash 349, net 348 , above 3 orders.

Can't Get My Mind Over Gold

5.40pm...this week,.. all my orders have been pre-set in the system. It will have to be a set and forget week. But the feeling I have on gold could not go away.. the desperation in wanting to short it. Technically, gold is not weak..but it is overbought and I have the strongest feeling that it will fall.
That feelings resulted in a lost of almost $100/- on Friday, blowing off my $60 limit loss per day limit.

I am giving in to this feeling one more time... stop loss set at $20/-.. shorted 2 lots of gold at 1744.979 and 1744.244. Will leave it as it is and not trigger reverse order when prices move up..since feeling is down.. will just focus on it's forthcoming plunge..if that feeling serve me well.. again, emotion's at play. Those that is not based on emotion has been preset - but nothing triggered yet. It's like fishing..you set in the bait,..it's not biting yet. For that, I will wait. For gold, I will ony hope that I my guts feel is right, if it is not,..that feel cause me $20/- which is acceptable.

Cash 319, net 318, 2 short orders for Gold

Did It again

9.10am...
The desire to see further fall in gold has lead to many shorting execution.. resulting in a massive loss of account.. massive becoz' I broke my rules of limiting daily loss of $60/-..and I went beyond that.

Decided to use only 1 strategy instead of multiple ones for forex...and that I should only trade on breakout.
I have put in few orders into the system, based on breakout assumption,.. each order lasting 1 week. Small volume orders with R/R at 1:1.2. This is completely a set and forget action,..Most of the orders call for the strength of USD.

Will see how it work out.. in the meantime, despite gold recent surge, I am still bearish..but dare not take the plunge to short (and short, and short) it at the moment.

Cash balance down to 319. 0 orders on hand

9.30pm NonFarm Payday

Everybody either hate or love the above nonfarm payday... given that I deflated my account due to a silly mistake I made on gold.. mistake based on assumption.. that made an ass out of my account.. I am wondering if I should take a gamble on this non-farm payday and place higher volume...  make it or break it kind of order ?

If I had my guts, I would play against Gold,..short,..and against Eur.. placing my assumption that USD will surge tonight . Than again,.. do I want to give myself a second ass ?! hmm.. probably not.. Will see how it goes.. I am pretty much (STILL) convince that gold will fall and have decided to short 1 lot,.. just 1 lot to see how things work out.. potential loss about $20/- for this pair... risk/reward = 1:1.

Cash positon... ouch 352.. SIGH ! Serve me right for playing with emotion than with strategy.. the sooner I mute my feelings.. the better is my account position.

Cloudy days

1.42pm..
Cloudy days both in local weather and gold market.
Looking at the 30 mins chart, the prices went into the cloud area , based on Ichimoku cloud... again my belief was turned on.. I keep seeing downside to the gold price -having surged so high in the past 2 days. i hv yet got over the climb and truly believe it is going to fall anytime.

Entered a few trades with SL set at $7 losses... and that was hitted, orders repeated,..hit and so on.. It went on for several orders.. each time, I short it, I am stopped out. End result,.. my total week's gain is evaported before of my belief in the weakness in gold - the strength in USD.
Current cash balance 367 / net 367.

Switching the theory..if you cant beat them..join them.. I hv now set a limit buy for gold, SL set at $20/- Am giving it 2 hours to trigger that purchase, failing which, it will just expire.

I looks thru' all the pairs,..there isn't one that is idea to trade (so that means, I should not force any trade). On hindsight, when I went thru' the charts over the weekend,..80% of the pair shows high risk of breakout. I put in orders of 9 units each to test the breakout ,..and it showed me a perfect pip gain of 200-400 pips. I hv to stop rushing.. when 80% of the charts showed a possible breakout..I hv to ponder on what it means and how I can capitalise on it. Knowledge without action = time wasted in looking at those charts. I must think beyond what the charts represent. Still a long way to learn.. ... I need to sharpen my axe,.not just keep on, keeping on..chopping trees.

Each time I become poorer,.. I learn a lesson.. but when my accounts get inflated, so does my head. I need to remain humble - I can never win the market..

cash 367 , 0 order on hand

Serve Me Right !

9.50pm
I closed all my account earlier , at the end of Asean session. The no zone period for me is between 5-8pm local time, mid day European session and before the US session.

Emotionally, my belief system says ; Gold has surged soooooo high, it has to come down,.. Eur/Aus has plunged for the last 4 days, it has to go up.  My belief system triggers my emotion sense and each time I look at the chart,..it moves exactly where I have visualised. Either I am seeing things or I will it to happen.. mentally. So put in a couple of trades ,..short gold, long EA... and as you may have guessed it.. eachtime I use my emotion to trade,.. I destroy my accumulated fund.
I still believe Gold will fall tonight,..and I still believe EA will move up tonight,.but becoz of my inability to control my emotions , I will not trade tonight..will trade to watch at the sideline and do nothing.
I hv brought my account down to mere 382,...
Will try again tmr.. for today,.. I think I have done quite alot of damage...

Cash 382,..0 orders...

Closed all position

5pm
Gold price fell slightly and instead of staring at it as it moved up and down, decided to cut my losses. Sold at 1743.72, loss $14/- . TA indicates prices may fall further, but who knows ? I am really scare of the US session. At the current moment, px of gold falls further. I would hv lost less, but then again,.. nevermind,.. will live with that .

Today's focus will be on Eur/Aus, mainly Long. Closed all the 4K order at small profit of about $4/- as it has reached the resistant level. I will review the whole situation again at 8 pm,.. in 3 hours time. Needed Europe to stablise a little for a clearer trend.

Cash balance 410. 0 outstanding.