Wednesday 30 November 2011

Odd Love with EUR/AUD

1.55pm. Thursday.
Busy in the morning,..didn't hv the time to ready sit down to draw trend lines.
My single long gold is still there and still showing losses of about $20. For the last 8 hours since last evening, prices does not move. Great pull between supply and demand... none giving way.

Thru' tracing some pair,came across Eur/Aud that has been sold drastically over the last 4 days. It is in a support level that has not been broken for the last two times. I thot I would be good to put in some money into longing the pair, with hope that the support continues to be strong.

Went in to buy 2 lots of 2K each, Long EA at 1.31549 - 1.31574. Expected total loss of $70/-. I hv not yet set the TP level as I intend to observe. The level I am aiming at is far too high, and unlikely to be achieve within this week. Will move the SL to breakeven when it moved up,.and will then place TP as and when , at the appropriate level.

Cash = 413 , net 396

What Am I gonna Do with Myself ?

11.45pm...
I was holding to 0 trade when the Worlds' Central Banks decided to act. I rarely see the push up in prices.. Gold / Silver shoot up like rocket. USD plunge,..and anything that trade against the USD , went up. Tonight , there are millions of other traders who both loss bigh and win big. The move was totally unexpected and very drastic. Blew off my mind.

And as I stared at the shooting gold price,.. my fingers inched - my two weeks of disciplined control could not stop that gambling instinct.  I waited for the price to move , up to a level when I felt that it has ran out of fuel. I triggered a sell. I was hoping to profit on it's way down. It showed me a profit of $3/- at one stage.. nay,..not enough...
As of now,.. it's showing a loss of -20$ and climbing.. it will likely wipe off all my gain for today ?! Sigh.. I hv not set up stop loss on this pair... i was willing to continue to bet that it will still move down.  Fortunately it's just a lot and I should be able to stomach any loss of up to $50/- ... will leave it.... prices has went up again..now showing a loss of $22/- even before I sign off this blog !!

Sigh.. me and my fingers,.... chopping it off..

I broke my rules

8.35pm..... I took a glance at the chart... I peek.  In most cases, the action taken from looking could have resulted in moments where you would knock your head on the wall - but this time , I was thankful that I could not resist not looking.
The trend , 1 hour into my morning purchase did not look promising... infact, instead of moving upwards, the 4Hr chart shows that trend has turned and it's moving south. I closed all the silver and gold and did a reverse trade. I short it.
There were a few transaction and I tried to buy/sell depending on the short term trend, result of which was I win more than I loss, so that was good.

Right now, I am staring at the chart to see what direction I should be placing my money on.  Prices has gone up in the last 1 hour, so am decided that I cleared all outstanding orders before I went for dinner.

Cash balance 408$ , up $28 or 7% from capital. Waiting for the day when I bring it up to my original capital of 5500$ before placing orders with larger volume. For now, it's important that my strategy works and that I am consistently winning, despite the meagre $ involved. If I can win $10, can I win $1000 in the future ?

Tuesday 29 November 2011

Set and Forget

9.10am...a new day with Set and Forget strategy on mind.
From the experience yesterday. If I hv not looked,.. I would hv profitted a little more than what I did. Will try to shift my attention to other activities for today and see what happen.

Long 8 units of silver at 32.0968, SL 30.29, TP 34.82.. Potential loss = 19, Reward = 28
Long 1 gold at 1721.65, SL 1690.15, TP 1779. Potential loss = 41, Reward = 76
Am risking 60  for 104 gain...

Cash balance 380/ net 380

I WILL NOT PEEK...I WILL NOT PEEK....I WILL NOT PEEK.....I WILL NOT PEEK...I WILL NOT PEEK...see if I can last till Europe trading session...

Silver trap

11.05pm
For the whole evening,.. price of dripping downwards.. like the tap that is not completely closed, the price of silver falls one step at a time.
I have seen these behavor before. Each time this happen, it just shows that price is moving the opposite direction pretty soon !
I didn't have any order outstanding,having closed gold with a very small profit.  The service provider that I used to chart my charts, is moving like a snail. The system freeze and I had technical chart to depend upon.
Used Oanda chart just to look at the price action and having learnt about supply/demand from Sam Seiden recently, I decided to push in 50 lots to buy at 31.86.  It took another 30 mins or so, to have that tap turned off and price started to soar... it hit the resistent line at 30 mins , and I exited at 32.1123 , with a profit of 12$.
Again without the technical chart, I  decided not to trade anymore for today. Time to rest and be energized tmr. I may hv to work out a Set and Forget strategy for small sum tmr since having a system the freeze can be very frustrating.
More tmr. No outstanding order as of now. USD is very strong today.


Cash 381

Should not have peek

4.15pm.. back from a loooong lunch with the kids,..and was feeling very tired when I took a peek at the silver and gold performance. Both showed a total negative amount near $10. Then 10 mins later, the market turned and plunged towards my direction.
First I was delighted that I now see profit for silver - gold is still in the red. And I wanted to take a quick nap and didn't want to risk the market moving north while I was not looking.  I needed peace when I sleep !

Comparing Silver and Gold, Silver looks weaker in technical sense - which is good for me since I shorted it, but since it's the only pair that shows profit, I decided to close all 50 lots at 31.8274, pocketing a mere $5/- . My lunch was 20x that , today !  At the point of writing, if I had closed silver now, I would hv profitted $17. Current prices is 31.6515. I need to quickly learn now to maximise my profit . Should I have placed order for 15 lots x 3 and scattered my sales ?  I hv to review soon,.. otherwise, it will be difficult to bring back to my initial level of $5500 capital.

 Leaving the gold order alone. It plunged with silver, but seems to have reached it's valley. Risk is $12/- , I can live with that. Now,.. I need my rest...

Cash 364.

Monday 28 November 2011

Needed an order in the system

9.40am..having observed the silver and gold price for the last 30 mins, there seems to be a 50-50% win-loss situation. A hard fight between bull and bear.
Price at the 4Hr chart for the silver is where I wanted it in the past,..a target for me to short. But given that 50-50 and the fact that price has risen to the previous high, I decided to move into the bear terrority.
Shorted gold based on the 30 mins chart. It has moved into the 'cloud' area and ADX showing bearish outlook.

Shorted 50 silver at 31.9172, potential loss = $29/-
Shorted 1 gold at 1707.52.  Potential loss = $11/- 
Today's potential loss = $40/-

Last night, did some transaction on EUR/AUD, resulting in a loss of $5/-...
Current cash balance = 358/ net =352

Closed Silver

4:40pm local time.
Silver stayed in negative territory for most of the day, only to burst upwards 5-10 mins ago . The BB tightening seen on the30 mins chart was squeezed thru out the Asian session.  Since primary trend is own and I hv noted that trade taken earlier is a counter trend, I decided not to push my luck too far and exited with a small profit . Manually closed the position at 31.944. $10 profit or 2.3% capital gain.


Will wait for the US session before making the next decision. Gold on the 4Hr chart has touched the 200EMA level.. it's ability to cross it may indicate a technical rebound. Will hv to see if prices will be able to push thru',..otherwise, it's south bound again.

Cash balance $363/ 0 orders outstanding

Sunday 27 November 2011

Long Silver

11.10am....
Gold and Silver surged in the morning before I even brush my teeth. It reaches the top channel of the 30 mins chart and it has been consolidating at the high level for the past 2 hours. 60 Mins is showing very tight BB and it looks more on buying strength than selling. For that, I went in to place a buy up order.

Decided to move in to buy silver. It is still a counter trend based on the historical movement, but signal is showing a strength is it's uptrend.
Went in to buy 50 lots at 31.7847.  SL set at 31.26 and TP at 32.56. I am risking $34 for this trade, profit is about $50.

Open trade : Long Silver 50.
Cash position 352.  Net position 355. Silver is showing a profit of $2 at the moment. Remember, this is a counter trade, so I hv to be careful

Friday 25 November 2011

Sudden movement at 10.45pm

10.45pm..price of gold and silver starts to surge,.. 4Hr chart at strong support. And waiting for  15 mins chart to signal the okay to buy. When both the green and the red line kiss on positive territory, I went in to buy without much thoughts. Set SL at $26/- sth that I believe I can tolerate for a risk at the moment.

The price suddenly exploded to my buy direction , while 4Hr stochastic chart indicates that there are more steam to run, the fact that it burst out so rapidly , makes me want to take profit first.

Sold both pair with profit, current cash balance = $345/-

S l o w D a y

Friday 9.35pm...

Prices drag their legs... very slow day today,.. good that I was out most of the time, otherwise, would hv gone in and out with orders and damaging my account.

Went in/out for a very quick bite on Silver.... richer by $16/- and then as usual, returned $6...

Cash $310/ Net $310. Usually dun like to trade on Friday and am sticking to that ,..actually , nothing much to trade too.. price range too much !

Have a great weekend ~!

Thursday 24 November 2011

Watch Paint Dry

...9.50pm.. watching paint dry is the summary of tdoay's trading experience - espy for gold and silver. It does not move at all.. the range is exceptionally tight...like it's waiting for something real big to happen.

Price is current at strong resistant level on the 4Hr chart,..weekly chart shows bearish trend.. daily is showing technical rebound - only think is , how long is the rebound and how swift.

I am most tempted to short it, but given today's snail pace, it's very difficult to profit. Will wait at the side line and watch what happen... hard to trade, so better leave it alone

current cash position.. 299/-.. you guessed it,..i open/close some minor trade that is too cumbersome to record.. overall,.. no trading position feasible now... let's not do anything or i may regret the action.

10.05pm.. minutes after writing the above comments, decided to go with shorting 2 lots of gold. SL about $50/-  Shorted at 1696.185 , SL at 1714.12...since I will probably stare at it till bed time, will not update any TP... go with the flow...

10.30pm... realised it's Thanksgiving day in US.. no wonder nobody trades !  Closed my Gold position and will start anew tmr.. no point leaving it there and wondering what will become of it. Position closed with small profit of $2/-

Cash balance 301/ net 301. Nothing outstanding

Power of Concentration

Quotation:
Concentration of the mind can only be developed by watching yourself closely. All kinds of development commence with close attention. You should regulate your every thought and feeling. When you commence to watch yourself and your own acts and also the acts of other people, you use the faculties of autonomy, and, as you continue to do so, you improve your faculties, until in time you can engineer your every thought, wish and plan. To be able to focalize the mind on the object at hand in a conscious manner leads to concentration. Only the trained mind can focalize. To hold a thought before it until all the faculties shall have had time to consider that thought is concentration.
The person that cannot direct his thoughts, wishes, plans, resolutions and studies cannot possibly succeed to the fullest extent. The person that is impulsive one moment and calm the next has not the proper control over himself. He is not a master of his mind, nor of his thoughts, feelings and wishes. Such a person cannot be a success. When he becomes irritated, he irritates others and spoils all chances of any concerned doing their best. But the person that can direct his energies and hold them at work in a concentrated manner controls his every work and act, and thereby gains power to control others. He can make his every move serve a useful end and every thought a noble purpose.
;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;

I hv been buying/ selling based on impulse.. and that only gives me lots of activities with very very very little profit to show for - what worst, losses - more likely.

On the 4Hr chart, the sma34 crosses ema 200. Such crosses happen so long ago,.. I need to see what is the consequence. The cross is a bearish cross.
Closed my gold position at a loss. Now cash balance down to 294. I will hv to wait for the precise buy/sell moment and not jump in and out based on whatever I fancy, so help me Lord !

Wednesday 23 November 2011

Shiny Gold

3.35pm..gold keeps inching up as expected. I was waiting for it to move up the resistant at 4hr chart. It does looks like it's possible.
BUT then, the problem is,.. I know it is moving up till it hit the roof and then my plan is to place a sell at the roof top. I was not able to resistent the temptation of moving it up with it till it hit,..so you may have guessed, I went on to buy 2 lots of gold. Risking $70/- for both pair.
Did not set TP as I believe it will probably be ended as breakeven when I move up the SL when price moved up - when it moved up !

Long 2 lots at 1697.10 and 1697.49.  SL set at 1661.74 and  1674.79. I hope I am not too late with this entry..  Whatever happen to my self control ??

Nothing to trade this morning

10.05am Thursday
Searched tons of charts this morning but found no trade. Alot of pairs espy when US$ is in it, shows divergence - giving me a feeling that this recent US climb is not totally supported.  I would hv loved to sell USD now, but that would hv been a very big risk as I do not know when that divergence will work out.
Did that in Gold before and was burnt. So lesson learn. What I did was to put a limit buy/sell based on the trend. If that gets broken, a small order will be triggered for me to pay more attention to.

Right now, nothing and am not going to force a trade. Gold and Silver remained bearish, but it's now on a technical rebound. Their plunge will depend on how strong US$ is going to push before it drizzled out.

So nothing for this morning. Will review again this afternoon.  And my cash record is lower then what was reported yesterday.  Like all gambler, when there are profits on hand,..the tendency is for you to return ome back to the table. I returened some back with small trades last night..too small and quick to even bother to record.

Cash position 305. No open trade

Time for my power nap

5.10pm... I usually take a 15 mins break when STI closed,..just to build up some energy for the forex trade in the evening.
Silver move down nicely.. phew !
First 50 short was Stopped out (I moved the SL resistent level and it was taken out). Stopped at 31.9561 with a profit of $20/-
Let the 2nd lot ride , it went up to $26/- and then move up again to hit my SL position. Profitted another $19/-.

Right now, no order in the system.
Cash position = $313 , just slight improvement from opening..despite all the ho-ha.. not a good trade. If I hv just put a short and close my eyes and not stare at the screen,.. I believe I would  hv profitted more.
Anyway, will review again when US session is up.

Tonight US Unemployment claim at 9.30pm.. I have to monitor this closely to see if I can take a ride on it's movement.

Hang on..

Crazy me - can't make up my mind

4.15pm... been bruised by silver today. It's a battle between emotions (the love for silver) and Technical reading. Both gave different signal.
Started the day following TA, but soon changed my mind when TA suffered some losses. Went long, then short, then long, then short,..and as of 4.15pm.. made up my FINAL FINAL answer. To follow TA and mute the emotions.

To make up for loss cash due to weaving of decision, decided to short 100 silver. A qty i hardly play since I last got burned and saw my money evaporated. This time round, I had a SL that will make me poorer by $100/- . Wow, this is almost half the money I hv left to play. I just have to believe on the technical reading and go for 'broke' ! Just hope that TA does not fail, or I will surely be broke!

100 short silver at 32.1975 and 32.26. 
Cash balance now 273, Net value 269. Nervously waiting for the trade to run it's full course,..DOWNWARDS !

Tuesday 22 November 2011

Being Flexible

2pm.
The 30 mins chart for gold show a very very tight squeeze.. like it's going to burst up/down anytime.
The 4Hr chart shows a toppish , which is why I shorted 50 lots earlier based on the 4 Hrly chart.
But I have since been uncomfortable... maybe it's my love for gold and silver which made me on the long side.

Rightly or wrongly, based on gut feel , and not taking into consideration the TA at 4Hr,..I closed off my 50 short on silver at loss and reverse my trade. Longing it this time.

Reverse to Long Silver at 32.6477.. crossing toes and fingers.  SL at 32.3529

Current cash position  273, net 269. Sigh!

Silver Is IT

10.30am.
Realised I can never reach my previous capital level is I do not take higher risk.
Decided to put the daily stop loss level of $50/- in just one pair. The silver pair.
Based on the 4 hr chart, the pair has reached it's resistent level. The only worry factor is that it's sitting on the SMA34 moving average. I am hoping that the down trend is strong enough to push it over the edge.

Went in to buy 50 lots short silver at 32.5775. SL set at 33.331. Hv not set TP target. Potential loss for this trade $50/- Make or break my account today.. leaving it to this order.

Current cash balance 287

AUD/EUR closed out

10.15am,.. the long dragging short trade for AUD/EUR finally closed. SL at 1.37734, loss of $12/-  The trend is your friend,.. that is why,..even when the indicator is showing toppish signal, the up trend still win,..even if it's by a margin. To think that there was a price struggle for 32 hours , with very tight range,..the eventual result is that the uptrend still win. So be it.
 Lesson learnt.

Another day for gain

9.45am Wednesday..
Was not able to provide any update earlier. For some unknown reason, stocks and forex went crazy 30 mins ago . Big price movement, the play of BB, I waited for it to settle down to see if any nice formation has been form for me to buy/ sell. Sad to say, as of now,..nothing.

EA pair,..during that crazy price movement, 1K was stopped out at a loss of about $11/- Only 1 order remains and at high risk of stopping out too. Looking at this pair, although it was unable to break it's very strong resistent, it wasn't ready to move down too. It stayed in that low range for the past 8 bars of 4 hours each. My SL is only 16 pips away which will likely be hit within the morning unless price decided to plunge. I am going to leave it alone since the losses is acceptable. Just wait to see who get exhausted first,..although I know i am looking at the mirror.

Gold is also stopped out at a small loss, prices fal to kill it and then moved up as of now. Gold price is hoovering around 1707.

Going thru' the 10 pairs from weekly to hourly chart, there is nothing that stands out to call for a long or short and I decided to go with the flow.. wait for indication.

Current outstanding order 1K EA short pair.

Cash balance 303, Net 297

Stop loss triggered - Gold

11.18pm...
Stoploss for gold triggered at 1695.14, giving me a profit of $11/-. I had moved it up when it showed positive position. It reaches a profit of $17 before falling.. if only..if only..but then again.. am happy with this opportunity to profit - gives me the confident that the 34sma is a good indication of support level.

I hv moved the SL for EA short pair lower,.. reducing my potential lost.. SL moved to 1.37731, and will leave the order open when I jump to bed. At the point of writing, price of gold has moved up from my sold level to it's earlier glory. And given my INABILTY to control my emotion, I jumped in to buy !!!!
3 lots at 1700.775, with SL at 1694.56. I just didnt want to miss the boat ?!  Potential loss for this impulsive trade = $24/-  TP set at 1724.22, which is the previous resistent level....

Now waiting for the trade to run it's course.
Outstanding orders :
3 Long Gold , 2K short EA
Cash balance 312, Net 312

Long into Gold again

10.05pm. Tuesday
Closed gold earlier at 1694.845 and it sent all the way down to 1686.46. While the overall trend in the long term looks bleak, the short term trend looks positive. Gold is oversold based on the 1 hour chart, price is being supported by the SMA34,..my favourite moving average.
Trusting the good old support at 34,  decided to move in with a purchase of 2 lots.

Long Gold 2 units at 1690.872, SL at 1683.45 , potential loss of $20/-
The short EA pair is still showing a neagive of $15/-

Now observing the price movement,..

Closed Gold and wait for US session for new direction..

6.50pm. Tuesday
Closed gold position, at 1694.84, profit $12. The 5 mins chart (ya, not supposed to trade using these kind of timefame ! but..but...) shows two long pin tail pointing up.. meaning .. price looks to move down. I wasn't comfortable to see all the profit eroded to nothing when US wakes up to trade. Decided to close it now and observe. My current short EA pair is showing a loss of $12 in total..still looks like the bull trend has not died yet. My trade is a contraian trade... will leave it and observe what happen... expected total SL at $25+ thereabout, so I still can stretch it 50% more

Cash position as of now 301, Net 288..sad !

Monday 21 November 2011

Trading ebooks available

3.20pm.. Tuesday
Eur/Aud.. Euro seems strong....looks like it's a long way to pressing it down. Right now, my two lots is showing a consolidated loss of $5/-..not alot, but unless I am able to trade profitably in small account, I cannot trust myself to trade well in big account.
My ultimate aim is to be able to stomach $500/- loss per day , and with a Risk/Reward ratio of 1:1.5, I want to be able to earn at least $7-800 per day. I cannot do that until I am able to gain back alll my losses, and show consistent wins.. so please do not laugh at these small amount that I am currently trading !

Just to get an idea of who's reading this blog,.. I have some trading ebooks that I would love to share if you are interested in it. Please write to me at bepassionate.life@gmail.com . Free trading ebook.

Have a good trading days.. I am holding on to my breath and not taking any action on my current orders.. Gold and E/A.

Can't leave Gold alone..

10.30am..Tuesday....back from my morning errands.

Looking thru' my 10 currency pairs, Gold stared back at me.  In the 4Hr chart, it cried "buy me, BUY me!".
There are 4 pin tail from the previous sessions, pointing possible technical rebound for gold. The current price of below 1700 looks attractive too. For that,..

Long 1 lot of Gold at 1685.194. SL at 1661.52, no TP set. Expected loss in this trade $31.

Current outstanding = 2K short EUR/AUD  , Long 1  Gold. Cash position 287
Total potential loss for today , less than $60.  Whst I need now is to close my eyes and let the trade manifest itself.

Tuesday morning trade action

8.35am..Tuesday.
Sighted a toppish formation of EUR/AUD a moment ago, in a 4 Hr chart. And since I will be out of action in the first half of the morning, decided to put in the trade and leave it alone .

Shorted EA 2K lot at 1.3682, SL at 1.3781. Total expected loss = $26. R/R for first lot is 1:1.


Currently only one (above) outstanding order, with cash balance of  287$/. Undertand that I am trading against the trend. I hope it's not foolish,but the 4 Hr shows a trend reversal. I hope it is correct.

Back to the drawing board

11.18pm. Monday.
Gold was moving up as predicted, set prices above breakeven and went for an evening jog,..only to return with positive Stop loss triggered. Prices plunge at about 11pm when I was not around.
Current cash value = $287 with 1 outstanding order. 1K shortsanti Aud/Nzd. 

My new rules will be :
1. No more trading early in the Asian morning. Just observe. Buy small during European session, and try to close order before US. US session is known to reverse the trend built up in Asia/ European timeframe.
2. Trade again in US session, use 4 Hrs for trending and 1Hr to trigger. Nothing lower than that.

I will leave by 1K short Aud/Nzd overnight since SL has been set and it's not going to kill my account.  I will hv to start again tmr. My weekend analysis has been on the spot for weak GBP against USD, but I am such a dummyhead - I didn't follow totally and was blinded by my love for gold. I hv to be rational. Follow trend, not heart.

current cash 287$, 1K short Aus/NZd

Crossing my fingers on Gold again

9.05pm.
Gold at 1 hr chart shows bullish divergence... and since I believe in the strength of 34sma on a daily chart, I decided to get gold a 2nd chance. 
Went in again to long gold at 1707.582. Potential stop loss $24/-  TP at 1724, roughly 1:2 R/R ratio.

I will learn to ride it thru'. Short term, price of gold looks to me trending up. I hope I am not wrong.

Broken Support, first major 'loss' today

6pm.. price broke SMA34 support for gold on a daily chart. Position Closed with lost of $24/-. Silver position closed with lost of $5/-

Current cash position down to $283/- . Bad, not liking it at all.. I will only blame it on my need to trade. I cannot stand empty / nil order status.

Will revisit the chart again near US session.  May have to wait the close of today on gold price. If it starts to confirm falling below the SMA34, I think it's time to do a big short on that. The issue here is - do I hv the patient to wait till tmr ? Or will I go against my better judgement and throw in some orders again today.

Emotions, my number 1 enemy.

Cash value 283

Mistakes Realised

4.40pm local time.

Gold. Stop loss triggered for 1 lot of gold at 1717.215 with a lost of $7.30. The other lot is still in the red.

Looking at my order, I realised that I hv made a mistake.
My short position in G/U and long position in Gold couter-attack eachother in terms of profit.  If I am expecting USD to move up, I should hv shorted Gold, but if I think Gold is moving up since it's being supported by SMA34 in daily chart, I should not have placed any orders, but to observe. My old habit of MUST HAVE an order in the system fail me again this time.

I have half the mind to close my gold position, but since it has yet broken off the 34SMA leel, I am inclined to leave it as it is for the time being. I should focus on the pair that has higher probability of winning,.. a sure case , instead of making assumption.

I may live to hit myself in the head later today, but inorder to just support one trend direction, I have decided to close my Short GU position and just hope for the U turn on price of gold to positive trend.
Closed both GU, 2K at about 1.57008 at 4.50pm. Profit $10.60/-

Decided to support the upward moving of Gold by buying 10 lots of silver at 31.57749.  SL set at 29.84, potental loss = $23/-
Current outstanding position
1 long gold, 1K short AUD/NZD , 10 long Silver  : Total expected loss for these order = $$50/-
(Note : I will RUSH in to short gold if the SMA 34 daily support is breached....)

Cash balance 312,  Net Asset value $300.

Sunday 20 November 2011

Long Gold again

11.20am, Monday
Went in to buy 1 more lot of gold at 1723.74. SL at 1720.15, total potential loss = $28/-
On a daily chart, Gold is supported by the 34 SMA.  I am willing to bet that support will hold , failing which, my loss will be $28/-. If it holds , it will probably reach 1780, giving me a risk/reward of 1: 1.8 thereabout.

And as I will be out in the afternoon, this will be a good time for the trade to stay inplace without me staring at it every minute.

Current open trade
GBP/USD short 2K
AUD/NZD short 1K
Gold Long 2 unit

Current cash = $308, Current Net Asset Value = $306, total expected loss for today <$60/-

New Order for the week

Monday.  9.22am
20 mins ago, triggered 2 orders :
GBP/USD 2K short at 1.5744 &
AUD/NZD 1 K short at 1.3195
Gold long 1 lot at 1722.82


Total expected lost = $25/-/  Risk/ Reward = 1:1.4 . No other trade looks feasible for now.
Gold is in a no trade zone. very tight range,..it can move up/ or down very rapidly.
Gold in the short term - 1 hr chart looks positive. Am risking $10 to buy 1 lot at 1722.82, SL at 1717.31
Current cash balance = $308/-

Friday 18 November 2011

Analysis for Next week's action Nov 21 - 25

Proposal for the week of Nov 21 - 25


GBP/USD : - KIV,..maybe play of the week
Strong support at 1.54 (weekly chart), daily resistent at 1.597.
Possible short play at 4Hr chart..
Short 1.57552
SL (2) 1.58642
TP (1) 1.56915 
TP (2) 1.56251

Gold : Do nothing 
Price standing at SMA 34 , 1708. Action only if that line is breach. Meantime, DO NOTHING on GOLD

Silver : Do nothing
Price at no man zone....up./down move uncertain. Better to wait for clearer picture.

AUD/NZD - Do Nothing
Possible start of downtrend. Do nothing now,.. observe

AUS/USD - Do Nothing till 0.96
Downtrend. Review again when price fall to 0.96 - observe

EUR/USD - Do Nothing till 1.29
Sighted H/S on weekly chart. Support at 1.3187.  If support broken , next support = 1.29.
Do nothing until price reaches 1.29. Then possible buy long into technical rebound.

Reflection...why I started this blog

I am in love with anything that shines, especially if it comes in a bar form!
My weakness for gold turned into a love-hate relationship when I mis-time my purchase and sales in gold trading. It blew up my trading account various time ; until I decided to get serious by making a commitment to record my transaction in the web. It makes me accountable for my action; it refrain me from acting impulsively. Making a journal out of this blogspot enable me to think logically, not emotionally. Emotions in trading is a dead trap. I started with $5500 and blew it down to $168/-. The last straw that broke my back is the lost of $400 within 3 hrs. I am fortunate to have made that loss, otherwise, this journal and my discovery of this new strategy will not have materialised. Thank God for the losses in life ! It gave me a better 2nd chance to winning it consistently. Thank you Lord.

Shop Closed for the week

8.40pm.
10 lots long silver take profit triggered at 32.28613 , giving me a profit of $11.
Manually closed the other 10 lots at 32.4142, profit of $13/-
Price may move higher - I really try not to care. Right now, no orders outstanding. Never like Friday trading. The price fluctuation can wipe out all profit for the week.

Started the week, Nov 14 with cash balance of $224, and end today with a balance of  $308. $84 or37% gain. This could be the first time in my 2 years of  intensive forex trading that I have consistent daily wins. And the reason I have gains was becoz' I set SL and TP and I did not overleverage.  These three elements are the demons to trading forex.
I have to gradually bring up my capital to the previous glories days of $5500/- and until I am able to bring up to these level, will I start to play more professionally, with higher level of capital  and self control/constrain.

No more trade for the rest of the night, I am very pleased with my current week performance. Never mind the little I hv gain,..it's the % that is pleasing. Good job and keep it up !

Cash balance : $308/-
0 orders outstanding.

Silver is IT

6.00pm.  Closed my Gold and  USD/CHF position. Gold closed at 1728.103, gain $5.20 and U/C closed at 0.91331, gain $11/- . Leaving Silver to fight the winning battle for today. I usually do not like to trade on Friday , US session,.. and since both Silver position is showing a gain of $8 each, I hv decided to move my SL to breakeven and leave the order as it is.
Worst scenario, my cash position remains as $284 for today.. still a gain of $23 or 8.8% from beginning of the day. I hv to stay discipline in order to crawl back to my previous capital.. a long way to go, but with the current strategy, it seems like a sure way - so long as I am not foolish to over leverage.

Open position : 20 long silver.
Balance cash $284/-

Thursday 17 November 2011

Gold's turn to shine

11.40am..
Looking at the 4Hr chart,  there are 3 pin tail pointing up.  Gold is at support level and there is a risk of breaking it and falling further. I would  like to think of the support as supporting and price moving up instead.
The previous 4 hours price was a doji, so it's not helping in the decision making. 
Will long,..and note that this is a contraian move.. buying against the general flow of price fall.

Went in 1 lot at 1724.02, SL at 1698.17, TP at 1758.9.  R/R ratio = 1: 1.2 (thereabout). Potential loss = $34.

Current position:
1 long gold
20 long silver
2K short USD/CHF.
Cash position : $261
Net Value of of now $270

Silver's turn

9.56am.
This is a buy based on 30 mins chart instead of the usual 4 Hr. 
Silver , Long 20 lots at 31.4067 and 31.4229. 
Potential loss = $16/- 
R/R ratio = 1: 1.4 for one lot. No TP for the other.

Current cash balance $261.
Open orders :
Long Silver 20 lots
Short USD/CHF 2K
Total potential loss = $32/- for the day.. am okay with it..

USD/CHF turn today

9.30am local time. Cash balance $261/-

Gold did a nice fall yesterday without me. I was away having dinner with friends and did not want to keep any position open.  Anyway, no big deal,..as long as you keep to your checklist, there is money to be made another day. Today, I am eyeing at USD/CHF ,..short.  On both the weekly and daily chart, this uptrend has hit heavy resistent. If it breaks thru'  - bad for me,.. and if it fall like it usually did in the last 2 occassion, I will get to profit some money out of it.

Got in short 1K x 2 orders at about 0.92114-0.92137.  Stop loss 0.92533. R/R ratio 1:1.2 . Total potential loss for both trade = $14/- And since this is within my pain thrush-hold,.. I think I will just ride with it and not close off the order prematurely.  
Hang in thereeeeeee....

If...

11.01pm local time. Took a time off of 6 hours to meet up with old friends from school. Didn't manage to see the chart till now.  Gold went down as expected, EUR/AUD went up as expected ; based on my previous entry.  But I got out of both position , IF and only IF I had held it,.. it would hv given me a nice profit. IF IF IF,..but then again, who knows ,..better feel bad about not capturing the profit than to agonise over the losses. No regret,..would hv done the same for peace of mind.
One thing I now realised,.. my analysis is okay,.. my expectation comes thru. I hv to now figure out how to maintain the order in the system and not close it in a hurry at the sight of profit. I hv to mentally expant my thrusthold for pain... I hv lost $400 in 3 hours,..what is a potential lost of $40-$50 per day ?  I will hv to work on my qty and grow my small capital back to where I first started... slowly but surely.. have promised not to overleverage,..so do intend to stick to my promise.
Cash balance...zzzz $260/-

Yo-yo mind

3.58pm..
Looking at the 4hr chart,  the price of gold is currently in the NO MAN land.
Resistent is at 1772
Support is at 1755.
Decided not to play smart alex. Closed my postion at 1764.09 ,.. My cash position is at per the start of the day...$260. No outstanding position until a clear signal is given... I shall hv to wait..and if my hands itch too much, I will just hv to do the trade in a demo account. For now, no decision till the above S/R is broken. Wait wait...WAIT...

Wednesday 16 November 2011

That was fast...

3.08pm..soon after my earlier post,..my order for short position was triggered. Purchased 1 lot at 1764.96.  Currently showing a loss in position.  Set SL at 1779.737 , TP 1745.36. Potential lost 20, potential profit about 24.
I am better able to accept this level of loss.
Current cash balance, $259/-

Tight BB

3.03pm.
Very tight BB in 5 mins chart. Price looks like it's stuck. Trend has been moving up, and with tight BB, I am expecting an explosion in price. But since there is a bearish divergence, price can go both way. I hv decided to put in a Buy and Sell limit for just 1 lot abover the previous high/ low and wait. Time given is 1 hour from 3pm.. Will see which pair gets in first... right now,.. it is as if price is waiting for some market announcement. I moves like a snail.

Nothing outstanding until the price  in the system gets triggered.

Out again...lesson learnt

An hour ago,.. noticing at the 4hr chart that I had  purchased gold at the bottom of the channel, decided to close the position and wait for a clearer signal.
Closed gold at 1751.39 , loss $2/-
Will just have to wait for it to move up to the upper channel at 1771 before I trigger any sell action. I realised it will be wiser than to trigger an short now and waiting for the position to be in bad shape before it gets better. Now, no order in hand.. just waiting...

Today's focus will be on Gold

10am local time. Current start value = $260/-

Looking thru' the overall daily charts, looks like a potential weakening in gold and silver.  I had indicated in my graph to only short gold /silver at a higher level. It's not time to short although the overall direction is down.
But since I am UNABLE to withstrain from not having an order in the system, I went in to short , just on impulse. As of now, I hope that is not an expensive impulse. My emotions are just too hard to change. 

Shorted 1 lot of gold at 1759.56.  SL 1791.87, TP 1726.08. R/R ratio = 1:1. Potential loss = $46/- . I usually allow only 20$ for total day loss, but guess I make an exception this time. Any lower SL may risk immature trigger,..and since I am pretty sure the price is falling,.. I will take an extended SL risk. Will see how it goes,..will try not to stare at the trade.. try try try..

Peace of mind needed

12.17am.. closed all position.  EA pair lost $1,.. Gold win $16/-.
Daughter wanted to watch a movie. I am unable to watch a movie + charts , so decided to close all my position.  Closed gold at 1768.8.

Cash position = $260/-  Nothing outstanding.. tomorrow another day.

Nite nite

Gold again

11.27pm.  Thank goodness for Stop Loss.. the price of gold plunge to 1757 a moment ago. I was stopped out at 1767.98.  Looking at the hourly chart, there is a possibility of retracement. Went in again 1 lot at  1756.26. R/R ratio : 1 to 4.  Potential loss in this trade $5/-

Outstanding order 2K long EA, 1 unit long Gold.
Cash balance : $245/-   Net Asset Value : $250/-

I deserve the losses

9.37pm.. Stop loss triggered for gold. Out with a loss of $7/- Okay. so be it. Itchy fingers...Sometimes the trade is not there, and you wanted to trade, so you forces a TA setting that tells you to go ahead with the entry. I found it in 5 mins,..and as usual, short timeframe is unreliable. I deserve the losses - in fact, I think I push myself in taking these loss.  No sympathy.
Now left with the 2k long Eur/Aud. The pair does not look good. But not bad enough for me to throw in the towel.

Balance $245

Buy Signal at 5 mins chart

9.23pm Local time.
I usually want to trade at 4Hr chart, but given that the Eur/Aud pair  is in the red, I am looking for something to buy for a quick profit.
Found it in gold. Risky trade as I dun trade in 5 mins, but thot I should just give it a try. Purchased 1 unit at 1773.54 based on 5mins buy signal. Potential loss = $7/-.

Right now, my balance value is showing $252... will see if the TA fails me.

Start again..

4.43pm... I didn't rest till now..if you think I have been skivving. It was only now that I decided to push in the order for 2K (1K each) of Eur/Aud Long.
Purchased 2K at 1.3331. Total Potential loss = 21$.  R/R = 1:1 and 1:1.5

While my love affair with Gold is still strong, it's not providing any indication to trigger an order. I just hv to wait.

Tuesday 15 November 2011

Tired ,..badly needed a nap

It's almost 3pm.. European market is opening soon, but I am tired and needed a nap.
I cannot risk leaving my open position to chance,.. it's now registering a profit for both A/NZ and  E/A pair.
I closed it all and will review again after I have sufficient energy.

Cash balance is $252,both current value and net asset value. 0 Position outstanding.

Rest first...

New Day with a Buy-Me setting from EUR/AUD pair

10 am. 
Last night outstanding order of  short AUD/NZD currently shows a profit of 28 pips each or about 2.8$ per 1000 lots (x2).
Sighted a Buy in 4Hr chart for Eur/Aud and triggered a 1K each order (x2) at 1.33141 and 1.33146. R/R = 1:1. Total potential loss = $27/-

Current status :
2K short AUD/NZD
2K long EUR/AUD
Balance 240$
Net Asset 248$

Will try not to stare too much at it's fluctuation until 4 hours later.. hard not to do, but for my account sanity, will try...

Last check before bed

12.55am Local time.
Gold and Silver chart does not look promising, closed 10 lots silver at 34.4361, profit $5.50. Closed 1 lot Gold at 1778.626 with a profit of $8.85.
The Aud/Nzd hitted the red short level at 4Hr chart, so decided to short 2K at 1.32004 , 1.31993 (1K each). Will see how it goes tmr morning.. hopefully, I see profit.
Good nite for now.. AUD/NZD short is the only outstanding pair for today. Current balance 240.6$, Net Value $242.60.

I am a woman,.. I am entitled to change my mind

9.21pm..
This is a delayed recording. A minute after closing off the earlier 2 lots of gold.. I relooked at the chart and decided to go for the gamble. Just 1 lot , with SL of $20/-.. that is my daily lost limit.
Purchase 1 lot at 1771.78....1:5 Risk/Reward ratio. Not looking anymore.

10 lots of silver - TP triggered. $3.60.

Outstanding order :
10 long Silver
1K short AUD/NZD
1 long Gold.....not looking anymore for the rest of the day. God bless the trade.

Adjust to breakeven

8.33pm. 
Decided that I should follow my set rules and not acted on impulse. My purchase of silver and gold earlier were based on gut field.Nothing technical about it. And since it's now showing profit. I ave decided to just take it .. $1.50 .. and move my 20 lots of silver to breakeven.
I do have to place trade based on set rules,..not gut feel - may not be lucky to get profit each time, so took whatever little on the table and wait for the right setting.

Current status:
20 long silver
1K short Aud/NZd

Got into Gold thru' peer pressure

8.25pm... went in to buy gold at 1770.189 x 2 lots. It was an impulsive buy since Silver is surging up.  I just want to ride in the trend.
1K lot of the earlier Aud/NZd pair was stopped out. Lost $4/- right now, only 1K lot left ..will leave it as it is.
Current open postion:
2 lots Long Gold
1K short  AUD/NZD
20 long Silver

Monday 14 November 2011

Opportunity to short Aud/Nzd?

3.35pm local time.  shorted 2 lots , 1000 each of AUD/NZD at price 1.3156 and 1.3155. Stop loss for both set at 1.31961. Potental total lost of $10.
Earlier this morning, AUD surge like there is no tomorrow. I am hoping it can be tamed down a little in the European and US session.  Current day price is grossly overbought for Gold.. trying to catch it on it's way down.
Current open position. Long Silver, Short Aud/NZd.

Feeling bored

1.30pm Technical Analysis is showing NO TRADE again.. My hands are now itchy.. I wanted to have a trade and get my emotion moving.. so I hunt down the possible trade.  Notice Silver. Not high probability of winning. but chances are slightly more than 50%. Decided to just move in with 20 lots each. I have traded 100 lots before, so 20 is nothing.. just to seize that craving soul - for a need to have an order in the system.

Purchased 2 orders of 10 lots each of silver. Price purchased 34.0095 and 34.0175.  Potental loss = $10/- Risk / Reward about 1: 1.7. Bought becoz of bullish divergence. Now that my soul is satisfy (I hv orders in the system).. will now wait and see.

Patience is Virtue. Hang in there !!!

10am local time. Current holding = 0. Open position as of yesterday triggered both stop loss and take profit.
The two Aud/Nzd pair resulted in profit of $4 and a loss of $5,..net negative $1. Was trying the strategy of placing two orders,..and moving the TP of the 2nd order higher up the hierachy. Looks like it does not work this time, but willcontinue this strategy.
Auto TP on the EU pair resulting in a gain of $8.20.

Current cash holding = $230/- with no outstanding orders. None of the 10 pairs I am tracking looks good to buy . It's on the NO TRADE area, so I need to be patient. Failure to do so, may again jeopardise the little money I have left to trade.

Start with the Beginning...

any sight of yellow  metal melts my heart. I have a weakness for all things shiny, especially if it comes in a bar,.. shiny gold bar.
I started the year 2011 with $5000 in a forex account, trying to make a living trading gold. With leverage of 1:50, I have at my disposal, the ability to trade $250K worth of gold and silver.

And as with all affairs, there is love, as much as hate.  My relationship with gold resulted in a roller coaster ride with my account. I lost all sanity as I try to short gold, only to see it climbing higher.  And when my nerves could not accept the surge in price, close the short and revert to long, only to see myself buying it at a peak and prices starts to erode.

November 10, 2011. My $5500 account (I put in another $500) has reduced to just $168/-. That Thursday night alone, within a span of 2-3 hours, I lost $400/- buying gold. Prices fell, margin call closed out all my outstanding long order. And as a confirmation of my luck, the price moved back up, and it continued up on Friday, Nov 11.  If I had not had that margin call and forced account closure, I would have gained. That Thursday night, I went to bed early, my heart was in pain. I could not bear to see the prices of gold that night,..nor most of Friday morning.

As with nature, the darkest moment made way to the brink of day light. I had that dark moments on Nov 10, 2011.  I revisited the event. My understanding of the trend is not wrong. My timing may be a little off, but what actually kill me is my leverage. I long too much , I short too much. Eventually, these are what killed me.

Nov 14th. Managed to pull back some of my losses. As of now, 11.01pm local time, my account now read  $223, up from $168 from Thursday.  I decided to journey my progress with immediate effect.  It is only thru' journal , the writing of thought, will one stay discipline . I will pen down each of my purchase with SL and TP in this blog. My aim is first to revive my capital outlay and once that is successfully, will move on living on this trading income. It has all been expenses/ losses - but all these will soon change. Just wait and see...

Status as of now:
Balance 223 / Net Asset Value 224
Outstanding Short  EU  338 units (potential loss = 0), short A/NZ 2000 units (Potential loss $11).
Current gold chart does not allow me to open any position. No trigger - self control = capital preservation